Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

314
FXUS61 KCLE 042335
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
735 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Heat Advisory was cancelled early and the severe weather
threat is over for this evening. Can`t rule out a few more
isolated to scattered thunderstorms but it`s very unlikely that
they pose a severe weather threat as instability has
substantially decreased.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Monday, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Heavy
rain and isolated flash flooding is possible.

2) Temperatures will return back to near normal Sunday through
Tuesday, before becoming slightly above normal towards mid to
late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The story over the next several days will be the potential for
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across
the region as a weak low pressure system gradually moves east
from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley through Monday. The main
concern with any showers and thunderstorms will be the heavy
rain threat, given a lack of steering flow less than 15 knots,
skinny CAPE profiles, and anomalously-high PWATs around 1.80
inches. Some isolated flash flooding (mainly rate-driven up to
2" per hour) is possible where storms persist, though given the
continued chances into Monday, will also need to monitor area
rivers for some minor rises. At this time, the overall severe
weather threat remains low Sunday into Monday given the lack of
flow, though can`t rule out some isolated instances of wet
downbursts in the strongest cells.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Anticipate a slight improvement in the overall weather pattern
over the next week as temperatures moderate back to around
normal (low to mid-80s), though maximum heat indices will remain
elevated in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures may rise
slightly above normal by mid to late week in the upper 80s to
near 90, though heat indices should remain below 100.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR is mainly expected this evening and tonight, outside any
additional isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms
(very low coverage/predictability). Patchy fog is possible
tonight in central and east-central Ohio where afternoon storms
occurred.

A low pressure system and cold front will start to move into
the region Sunday and bring periodic rain showers with embedded
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the region. There could
be some heavier rain that could bring non- VFR visibility and
ceilings throughout the day on Sunday but it`s difficult to
target any specific periods at this time. For now, kept showers
and VFR conditions throughout the day but when confidence
increases, can introduce not-VFR and perhaps some TSRA.
Afternoon convection will yield slightly higher confidence in
thunderstorms for our southern TAF sites (KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG).

Winds will be light and variable overnight into Sunday
with the low moving through the region but should eventually
settle on northeast flow for Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR with occasional showers and thunderstorms
possible through Tuesday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are
also possible Thursday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
North to northwest flow will continue over the lake this
afternoon into this evening behind a lake breeze. A low pressure
system will enter for Sunday and northeast flow will develop
over the lake and strengthen to 15 kts and waves will build to 2
to 3 ft over the western and central basins. This unfavorable
flow will continue into Monday and weaken on Tuesday with winds
of 10 kts or less. High pressure will build from the west for
Wednesday and Thursday and switch winds back to southerly,
offshore flow. There is potential for a Small Craft Advisory
with the northeast flow for Sunday and Monday if winds can
increase just a touch from the current forecast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sefcovic